Also, even in last election only the mean probability of Hillary was greater than Trump. If you look at the standard deviation of the same analysis, it would show that Trump could have won. If it says Trump is 40% likely and Hillary is 60% likely – it doesn’t mean that he wins 40% of electoral votes and she wins 60%. This means that on average, that Dragon Shhh my coffee i are having a moment i will deal with you shirt. And if you look at how all the 3 major swing states in the last election was lost by only thousands of votes (77,000 to be exact), this is too delicate to measure. The techniques were updated and the 538 aggregator was dead accurate in 2018 midterms.
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